UN Maps Show Security Deteriorating in Afghanistan

There have been some arguments recently about the relative security in parts of Afghanistan. The Obama administration has made claims of military success since beginning the mini-Surge, but internal UN maps showing a decrease in the security status came out in the media. Now there are questions about whether Obama was spinning the actual conditions. I don’t think so and here is why.

First the claims of military progress by Obama and a worsened security situation for civilians, NGOs and other groups actually makes complete sense. If we are busy fighting in an area that may have been Taliban controlled, then of course the over all danger for anyone in that area is going to go up. That is what the UN maps report, and increase in all kinds of badness happening to you in a number of areas. What then happens is that is combined with reports of the Taliban spreading to areas they hadn’t controlled previously. This supposedly shows that we are not making progress. Well, not so fast there.

We sent most of our forces into the Greater Kandahar Taliban & Corruption zone and have moved out many, many Talibs and their enablers. Some we stacked like cordwood, some we just ran out of town. This took away some of the best support mechanisms the Talibs had in Afghanistan. So they were forced into other areas, leading to some of the security problems that were noted. But we also have severely degraded their command & control and logistic support operations in country. Adding in the hundreds taken out in the combined Magic Ninja and drone operations in all of AfPak and it is hardly a good or safe time to be Taliban or AQ. So militarily, as usual, we are kicking ass. But that isn’t enough.

If you listen to what the President said this month about progress and his exit strategy, you heard him talk about handing things off to the Afghans. It has worked fairly well in Iraq and he will certainly note that. But for the 4 millionth time, A-Stan ain’t Iraq. Afghan civil governance and security operations are a soup sandwich and they are not ready to do much of anything yet. Obama thinks announcing his withdrawal date or in reality, the start of cut & run, was the factor that led to the military gains we agree have been made.

“In his remarks, Mr. Obama gave credit to the strategy’s goal of a July withdrawal as a motivating factor for the administration’s wartime partners around the world. He said the July deadline “galvanized” the coalition that is fighting in Afghanistan.

Much of this is the result of us having sent a clear signal that we will begin the transition of responsibility to Afghans,” Mr. Obama said.

Yeah right buddy. More accurately you could say that our troops overcame the stab to the front you gave them by doing something so incandescently stupid as announcing the withdrawal date in the same speech you are announcing a mini-Surge. That was a complete Blue Falcon maneuver designed to pacify the ass clown pacifists on your left. Well it did you little good with them, and it told everyone involved with the fight there that politics trumped fighting to win. Our enemies heard that and so did our allies and anyone considering helping us.

The only way to win there is to convince enough of the locals that we are stronger then the Talibs and could provide them security and a chance to live a better life. If we are leaving almost immediately, then they are left with a choice between Karzai and his blend of corruption and incompetence or the Taliban and some wonderfully oppressive, medieval obscurantism. That is one hellish set of options. So why in the world would any Afghan join us in one more fighting season, followed by which they can choose which hobnailed sandal they want on their neck? Best to choose sides now and gain what advantage you can. That is where we stand currently a politician in chief looking to make sure he can campaign for re-election with the cut & run from Afghanistan already well under way.