Obama Administration: Redistribution of Wealth Power

Editor’s note:  We are asking a group of leading thinkers, “What does the current strategic balance look like?”  Here is a response from Dr. Herb London,  President of the Hudson Institute , a world-renown think tank.

As I see it, the strategic balance is evaporating before our very eyes. The nation’s nuclear deterrent is aging and has not been tested in decades.

The New START agreement with Russia will lead to a decline in our delivery capacity, e.g. missiles, planes, submarines, so that presumptive balance can be achieved. But the Russians will mothball outmoded systems; while the U.S. destroys active systems. Moreover, the language in the treaty suggests a Russian veto over the deployment of anti-missile sites, a concession no previous government was willing to consider.

It should also be noted that rhetoric has strategic implications. The president’s commitment to the “zero option” indicates that he will attempt to reduce our nuclear posture in the hope other nations will follow suit. However, Iran has a clear desire to obtain and deploy these weapons whatever blandishments or penalties we impose and whatever posture we adopt.

On another front, it is clear that the Chinese blue water navy now dominates the Taiwan Straits. Both Taiwan and the U.S. concede, we no longer possess the capacity to offset a Chinese attack against Taiwan.

It should also be noted that Turkey, with the largest military force in NATO, the third largest air force, and access to sensitive deployment operations and technical military intelligence, has moved its allegiance dramatically from its Western alliance to Iran. This is not merely a set back to the U.S., but it complicates any military operation against Iran, however unlikely that may be.

On any level, the U.S. fiscal program has reduced our capacity to spend on defense. With two wars raging and fatigue setting in at the Congress, it is only a matter of time (short time) that the incremental withdrawal of U.S. forces commence. This withdrawal will have, indeed is already having, a profound influence on allies seeking a deal with “the strong horse” (read: Iran).

International affairs cannot tolerate a vacuum. Whether it is filled by China, Iran or another nation or combination of nations is unknown. But on one matter we can be sure: U.S. strategic influence is in decline and from the standpoint of global equilibrium this isn’t good news.